🔗 Share this article

Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."