🔗 Share this article

Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are released from different nations. Significant resources is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a ability provided through current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.